Field of Screams

A woman who lives in Detroit recently called into a National Public Radio show on how the economic crash is reshaping America and asked if she should move or stay. She has family and friends in Detroit but is underemployed and worried about the long-term decline of her city’s auto manufacturing sector. Richard Florida, author of Who's Your City?, responded that she has two options: connect herself to a nearby prosperous metropolitan area and commute once in a while to freelance work there or stay underemployed.

According to Richard Florida's recent "How the Crash Will Reshape America," article, the “economic crash will permanently and profoundly alter the country’s economic landscape” as people out of work seek better opportunities. He sees a movement of talent away from the Rust Belt (parts of the Northeast and Midwest) where the manufacturing base has been eroding for decades, and away from the suburban sprawl areas of the Sun Belt (from California to Florida) where “fictitious real estate wealth” has evaporated. The overbuilding of suburban sprawl across our country, which has trapped many of us in long-commutes for years, seems to finally be slowing. Arizona State University professor Anthony Sanders believes “The suburban Field of Dreams has turned into the Field of Screams: if you build it no one will come.”

Where will people move to? Florida predicts the mass migration of talent to mega-regions and their surrounding suburban rings, such as:

• Boston-New York-Washington
• Northern and Southern California
• The Texas Triangle of Houston-San Antonio-Dallas
• Southern Florida’s Tampa-Orlando-Miami area
• The Pacific Northwest’s Portland-Seattle-Vancouver area
• Greater Chicago
• The Toronto-Buffalo-Rochester region

The densification of these regions will cluster well-educated professionals, creative workers and other talent to drive innovation and create wealth faster than in less dense areas. In order to overcome the traffic congestion and rising housing and business costs of these areas, these mega-regions will need to densify building stock and expand mass transit within and between each dense area. This is good news for inhabitants, who will enjoy thriving, walkable communities, and good news for our environment as these growing areas become less-dependent on fossil fuels that contribute to climate change.

Stanford Economist Paul Romer said “A crisis is a terrible thing to waste.” We have an opportunity to grow our shrinking economy in a more sustainable direction. If Richard Florida is correct, these trends will make our society more efficient and lower our impact on our environment. Do you agree with the trends he predicts?