Climate Change as an Issue of National Security

On June 25, 2008, Thomas Fingar, Chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC), stood before Congress and briefly summarized the findings of a new report detailing how climate change is likely to affect U.S. national security. The National Intelligence Assessment: National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 estimates climate change impacts on individual countries, assesses how those countries could “cope” with climate change, then examines how those countries’ successes or failures could in turn affect the U.S.

To estimate climate change impacts, analysts assumed a midrange Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenario. A country’s ability to cope with climate change was determined by (among other things):

Physical conditions - How much change was the area likely to see in terms of temperature or precipitation? How would these changes benefit or impact physical structures, agriculture, etc.;

The state of current water resources - Is the area currently struggling to provide for the basic water needs of its citizens? Are droughts predicted for that country or any other countries sharing its water resources (for example, upstream nations or nations sharing aquifers)? Could strained water resources lead to internal or external conflict?; and

Population considerations - How many people live in areas that could be affected by sea level rise? Will the spread of diseases become an issue?

Analysts then examined the effects such impacts would have on the U.S., its economy, and its allies.

Fingar’s summary did not include specifics of individual nations or even of regions, since the full report remains a classified intelligence document. It did, however, outline some key findings:

• The impacts of climate change will be unequally distributed. Regions such as sub-Saharan Africa that already face food and water shortages will bear the brunt of the impacts. Meanwhile, regions such as North America (due to its position in the mid-latitudes) will fare better.

·     The most important impacts to the U.S. will likely come indirectly from other countries. If climate change causes instability abroad, the U.S. could have problems trading with other countries. Increased immigration of refugees and the need for more humanitarian aid abroad could weaken the U.S. economy. Finally, the cost of repairing physical damage due to weather events or of funding climate change policies could further strain the economy.

Fingar acknowledges that the NIC report is the first of its kind and will benefit from additional data and future refinements. Plans for additional NIC studies include more detailed analyses of individual nations and regions, an exploration of how climate change might shift global power, and estimates of the security implications of climate change remediation actions.